Gold is well-known as a hedge against inflation, and it also can be a valuable asset in times of economic decline. Despite what you may hear from macroeconomists on cable news, no one can say for sure how far the economy will slide.
This is why many people consider gold to be a safe haven investment. But what factors are driving its value?
Inflation
Gold’s main job is to store value for you long-term. This unique property is what attracts investors to it. In a time of rising inflation, it’s wise to protect your portfolio with precious metals like gold bars and coins. The good news is that there are a number of easy ways to get started investing in gold.
While there is a correlation between gold and inflation, the two don’t move in lockstep. Gold often rises when investors fear inflation, but it also does well during periods of low or moderate inflation. The reason for this is that gold offers a hedge against both inflation and deflation, meaning it can provide real returns even when inflation is low.
This makes it a great asset to hold during times of economic uncertainty, such as when the US experiences a recession or black-swan event. In fact, gold has offered better protection against these risks than stocks and bonds during most of history.
As the COVID-19 pandemic deepens, many investors will realize that their stock-heavy portfolios are burning up. As they start to shift their capital, they’ll remember that gold is the ultimate inflation hedge. This will lead to vast buying, fueling powerful gold bull runs and a bullish run in gold miners’ stocks.
Inflation will be exacerbated by several factors, including ending artificial suppression of gasoline prices, a lower dollar boosting import prices, and weaker corporate earnings. All of these will ratchet up investor awareness of inflation’s ravages and lead to widespread perception that headline CPI inflation is still stubbornly high despite the Fed’s extreme rate hikes.
That’s a big problem for the Fed, and a huge benefit for gold. As long as the epic flood of new QE money continues to slosh around the economy, inflation will remain elevated and that means gold is the best inflation hedge available to investors. In fact, gold doubled during the last two inflation super-spikes in this modern monetary era, and it’s not crazy to expect a similar doubling in this latest one. Of course, this doubling won’t be as large with today’s far-larger aboveground gold supplies, but it will still be much higher than the growth in global fiat currency supplies.
Geopolitical Uncertainty
Gold is considered a safe haven investment and often performed well during times of geopolitical uncertainty. In fact, gold prices increased 34% during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 and have also risen when foreign relations deteriorate, such as during wars and other conflicts between superpowers. This year, investors have flocked to gold as fear of a recession and stock market turbulence persists.
While a recession is unlikely, rising interest rates and a shaky stock market may stoke inflation fears. Gold tends to perform well in a rising inflation environment because it acts as a hedge against inflation and can be used as a currency in times of economic turmoil.
Investors have a variety of ways to invest in gold, including buying physical bullion and purchasing mining shares. However, it’s important to understand that when investing in gold, you should never buy based solely on its price. Instead, you should buy because of its other features and benefits.
Whether you decide to buy physical gold or mining shares, be sure to shop around and compare prices before making your purchase. Purchasing from a reputable dealer can help you avoid scams and get the best value for your money. Additionally, if you’re considering investing in gold online, be aware that many scams occur in the digital space, so be careful to only buy from reputable sellers.
Investing in gold is a smart move for several reasons, but the most important reason is that it provides an excellent hedge against inflation and other financial risks. Gold is an essential asset in every portfolio, no matter how big or small it may be. As a result, investors should consider adding it to their portfolios today. If you’re unsure of the best way to do so, ask a professional for advice. They can provide valuable insight into the world of gold and the best ways to buy it. And, as always, don’t forget to diversify your portfolio! This is the most important step to ensuring long-term success in any market. Adding other assets like equities and fixed income can help to cushion any losses that might be incurred in the short term.
Rising Interest Rates
Gold is a safe-haven asset, and it tends to hold its value during economic uncertainty. It also thrives when stock markets take a tumble. However, rising interest rates can make it more difficult for investors to enjoy those benefits.
The Fed has raised its target federal funds rate five times since March, putting it above 4% for the first time in more than a decade. This puts a ceiling on the yield investors can get from bonds, which drives some to seek alternative investments, such as stocks and gold.
Purchasing physical gold has its own set of risks and challenges, including storage and price volatility. Additionally, it’s impossible to guarantee you’ll receive the market price if you sell. Plus, you’ll have to pay capital gains tax if you decide to resell it. Another option is to buy shares of the gold mining companies that produce it. This gives you exposure to gold prices, as well as a company’s reputation, production costs and reserves.
Rising interest rates can boost demand for gold by making it more affordable to global investors. These investors will buy gold with currencies other than the U.S. dollar, which will cause the greenback to weaken. In turn, this could lead to even higher gold prices.
The gold market is notoriously volatile, and it’s hard to predict what it will do in the short term. That’s why it’s important to do your own research and analyze the latest news, technical and fundamental analysis, and a variety of expert commentary.
While the short-term outlook for gold is shaky, it’s still worth a look for anyone looking to diversify their portfolio. Gold is a unique asset that can serve as an inflation hedge and protect against economic uncertainty, and it’s proven its value in recent years. It’s also a popular alternative to stocks during bear markets, and it has typically outperformed the S&P 500 in 2023. Just remember that gold is not guaranteed to increase in value and you should only invest money that you can afford to lose. You should also consider your investment goals and risk tolerance before trading.
Dollar Failure
The US Dollar is the most widely used reserve currency in the world. As such, it’s important to keep in mind that a collapse of the Dollar could have severe financial consequences for individuals around the globe. While this is unlikely, it’s always worth being prepared for the worst.
Historically, gold tends to perform well during periods of financial turbulence and economic weakness. This is because people turn to gold as a safe haven asset when they lose faith in their country’s currency. In addition, gold is often seen as a hedge against inflationary pressures and debasement.
In 2022, the world’s central banks were net buyers of gold for the first time in a decade. However, it’s important to note that central banks don’t have a stellar track record of timing gold purchases (no knock on them, they just aren’t great at it). Thus, the recent bout of buying by EM central banks doesn’t necessarily signal a shift away from the Dollar or towards a shiny yellow metal.
The SPDR Gold Shares (commonly known as GLD) is the largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund in the world. It is managed and marketed by State Street Global Advisors and has a market capitalization of more than $40 billion. The ETF is traded on the New York Stock Exchange and has an investment-grade credit rating.
Gold has been a symbol of wealth and value since ancient times. It’s been a pirate’s booty, an ingredient in microcircuits and a coating on astronaut visors. However, it is also a valuable commodity in the current global financial system, acting as an alternative to fiat currencies.
If the world’s major currencies were to collapse, it would have a devastating effect on the global economy and individual investors. But while a dollar collapse is unlikely, it’s still important to be prepared for the worst. That’s why it’s essential to diversify your portfolio with investments in various assets including physical gold and other precious metals. By doing so, you can ensure that your savings are protected should the unthinkable happen. So start building your gold stash today to be ready for anything.
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